01.11.07
Who pulled the plug on Lake Superior?
Increasingly low water levels on Lake Superior will hamper ships such as the M.V. Canadian Transfer, here offloading coal in the harbor at Ontonagon, Michigan.
Yesterday I consulted the Army Corps of Engineers’ Great Lakes conditions website for the latest figures on the Lake Superior water level. When a writer spends much of the spring, summer and fall at a log cabin just thirty feet from that large, often extraordinarily tempestuous body of water, he must pay attention to its ups and downs.
For the first nine days of January, the Corps reported, the surface of Lake Superior fluctuated between 600.2 and 600.3 feet above mean sea level. (Later: For the first nine days of February, the number had dropped to 600.0 feet.)
The record monthly average low for Lake Superior is 599.6 feet, set in 1926.
Yes, if this state of affairs continues through the winter, a new record’s going to be set.
Low water is a happy thing for Debby and me personally because it means the wild November storms are less likely to chew up our shoreline and carry away our cabin. There were times when we got nervous, especially in 1985, when the high-water record was posted at 603.4 feet — more than three feet higher than the lake level today. (The average level over the decades has been 602.1 feet.) The edge of the water had crept near the tops of the log-and-stone cribs that protect the property. Another foot of rise and our living room would have been awash.
But low water isn’t good for the economy in Ontonagon County, the real-life counterpart of the fictional Porcupine County in my mysteries. Two of the few local industries — a paper mill and a power plant — depend on coal brought in by lake freighter, and low water in the shallow harbor means the ships can’t come in with full loads, even with expensive dredging. They must make several trips to offload the same tonnage. This drives up costs and trims profits. Since paper mills operate on slim margins, the continued running of the Ontonagon mill — the county’s largest employer — is jeopardized.
Whether the cause is global warming or El Nino, balmier weather is at the root of the problem. Last year was the warmest on record in the United States. As average temperatures climb, Great Lakes levels fall because there is less rain and snow, and, in the winter, less ice to cover the lake, therefore more evaporation.
What’s going to happen in the long run? The scientists say warming waters will alter the aquatic food chain, chasing out coldwater fish like bass. Wetlands will dry up, meaning fewer birds. Hardy northern tree species like aspen, birch and pine — important to the local economy — will suffer from increasing heat. In the short term a thinner snowpack will hurt snowmobiling, important to the Ontonagon County economy.
Agriculture might benefit as the growing season expands, but since most American farms are owned by megacorporations, their stockholders will profit, not the average rural dweller.
What does this all mean for Deputy Sheriff Steve Martinez? I don’t yet know, but since this corner of Upper Michigan is an important character in the novels that feature him, I’ve got to research this issue.
